10 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018 • FOGHORN FOGHORNFOCUS: SALES & MARKETING the model and the output data; and they must have coeffi- cients that make sense – in other words, they tell a plausible story. Findings Fortunately, we found that most of the variation in ridership from 2002-2016 could be explained by two factors within the client’s control: fares and parking. Figure 2 is a plot showing annual passenger and vehicle ridership since 1980 as points, with our ridership model overlaid on the data in red lines. The leveling-off of passenger and vehicle ridership in the early 2000s coincides with a gradual and ongoing increase in fares. The slight decline in vehicle ridership coincides with the expansion of parking lots at both terminals, which allowed more riders to walk onto the ferry (many Guemes Island residents keep a car on either end of the ferry route). This explanation makes sense, and the data collected over the past four decades supports it. While it is always possible that another explanation could emerge in the future as conditions change and more information becomes available, the existing data provided the basis for a confident decision on replacement vessel size. Lessons for Operators Operators should not underestimate the importance of Figure 3. Car and driver fare in nominal and 2017 dollars – Guemes Island Ferry Fast Page Loads Streamlined Checkout Multiple Account Sign-Ons Improved Search Quick Order Easy Invoice Look-up Requisition Lists • Over 135,000 products for your business • 28 regional distribution centers • Same-day van delivery • 250+ stores • The most-knowledgeable and seasoned sales representatives in the industry Your 24/7 destination that’s packed with the features you need to get the most out of your time and money. westmarinepro.com All backed by the power of West Marine Pro. 1-800-621-6885 or visit westmarinepro.com. Increased Inventory Availability keeping detailed, organized electronic ridership data. Doing so is essential to quantifying the forces that cause fluctua- tions in ridership and revenue, and can also provide your naval architect with tools for streamlining your operation or sizing a new ferry. Ideally, data should be recorded on a per-sailing basis so that peaks and valleys in ridership throughout the hours of operation can be measured. Each mode of transit should be recorded for each sailing. Modes might include walk-on passengers, drive-on passengers, vehicles less than 20 feet,